Grid connection queues in Poland: who's actually getting connected

The Polish grid queue is the single most-discussed bottleneck in CEE Solar+BESS development. Headlines talk about "200 GW of applications" — but the real story is much narrower. Here's what we see when we look past the application count.

The 200 GW number is misleading

PSE's quarterly queue snapshot routinely shows aggregate connection requests above 200 GW. The vast majority are placeholder applications: land options that lapsed, developers who filed before deciding which site to actually pursue, speculative requests that were never going to become real projects.

The number that matters is the PRC (Pozytywna Reakcja na Wniosek) — projects where PSE has issued positive conditions and the developer has paid the connection-conditions fee. As of Q1 2026 the PRC queue stands at roughly 38 GW Solar + 12 GW BESS. That's the real pipeline.

What's actually getting energised

In 2025, the energised Solar volume was approximately 4.8 GW. Of that, the bulk came from three sources:

• Sub-1 MW micro-installations — distribution-network connected, no transmission queue interaction. Steady volume, low per-project margin.
• Mid-scale (1–10 MW) projects on existing MV substations with spare headroom. These are moving fast because they're avoiding the bottleneck entirely.
• A small number of large utility-scale projects that secured conditions in 2021–22 and have finally cleared construction.

Almost no new ≥10 MW connection requests filed since 2023 have reached energisation. The expectation across the developers we work with is 36–48 months from application to NTP for a new utility-scale HV connection.

What predicts success

We've looked at which PRC applications eventually convert. Three signals dominate:

1. Existing substation proximity. Projects within 5 km of an existing 110 kV bay convert at >3x the rate of greenfield interconnects.
2. Secured land tenure with multi-year lease. Connection conditions expire if the developer can't demonstrate land. The queue is full of applications with 3-month land options.
3. A developer with a track record on PSE applications. Repeat developers know the documentation requirements, miss fewer deadlines and respond to clarification requests within hours.

If you don't have all three, the application is probably noise.

What this means for EPCs

Polish utility-scale Solar EPCs are facing a structural pipeline crunch through 2027 — too much announced volume, too little of it actually buildable inside two years. EPCs are pivoting to:

• Hybrid projects where the BESS is added to an existing Solar connection (no new transmission application required).
• BESS-only retrofits at industrial sites with existing grid connections.
• Mid-scale Solar on the distribution network, where competition is fiercer but the pipeline is real.

Our view: 2026–27 will reward EPCs who are flexible on project size and willing to chase volume where the grid actually exists.